Did War Have to Happen?
Russia has put forward a highly contentious list of security guarantees it says it wants the west to agree to in order to lower tensions in Europe and defuse the crisis over Ukraine, including many elements that have already been ruled out. The demands include a ban on Ukraine entering Nato and a limit to the deployment of troops and weapons to Nato’s eastern flank, in effect returning Nato forces to where they were stationed in 1997, before an eastward expansion. The eight-point draft treaty was released by Russia’s foreign ministry as its forces massed within striking distance of Ukraine’s borders. Moscow said ignoring its interests would lead to a “military response” similar to the Cuban missile crisis of 1962. Vladimir Putin has demanded that the west provide Russia “legal guarantees” of its security. But the Kremlin’s aggressive proposals are likely to be rejected in western capitals as an attempt to formalise a new Russian sphere of influence over eastern Europe. — (The Guardian – December 17, 2021)
Did we have to get here, rise up in arms? The West wasn't ready to listen or find middle ground. It held some principles more important than peace and compromise. People say you can't have the cake if you eat it, but that's what it felt like, the West's effort to excise Ukraine from Russia's neighborhood while keeping friendly relations with the Russian Federation. An exercise in double-think.
This was no surprise attack... Putin shared with world leaders his concerns months ahead of time. Was it the best idea to brush off Russia's officially-raised concerns? The value of pride often fades in retrospect. It matters to consider whether a different Russian president, however democratically elected, would have found it agreeable to see his nation's own military deterrence neutralized by NATO's eastward expansion. It matters to consider whether any other Nation-State would have welcomed such encroachment in its regional affairs by a remote foreign power. Because Putin's strongman persona invites Western opinion to paint him as the issue, but chances are a different Russian leader would've acted similarly by way of being subjected to the same pressures and possible courses of action.
It helps to remember that even though NATO's membership is mostly European, the whole endeavor comes laden with the energy and foreign policy ambitions of the United States Government. From a Russian State perspective, letting Ukraine come under the NATO umbrella amounts to inviting a self-declared adversary to your doorstep... under what logic did we expect the Russian Federation to keep calm and quiet? Yet again, the West mistook Putin's resolve to straighten a boat he felt was going dangerously sideways.
✎ Connection to
Key / The Prevention of Misery and Tragedy